USD Forex Trading Mistakes of The Day

USD Forex Trading Mistakes of The Day

Another day, another mistake and more learning.

I took a trades based on 2618 shorting style. I made 3 trading mistakes today:

USD Forex Trading Mistake of the Day
USD Forex Trading Mistake of the Day
  1. First Trading Mistake was that there was psychological price 1.3200 level just above which I should have included in my stop loss calculations. That would have meant bigger stop which leads me to second trading mistake.
  2. The second trading mistake was to wait for a confirmation in the zone to take an entry as stop levels were supposed to be high.
  3. Third mistake is the one which caused all this mess to start with. I missed/ignored the fact that there was a news expected on USD today.
    FriOct 23 9:45am USD Flash Manufacturing PMI

All these are there in my trading plan so moral of the story again is remember to remember your trading rules. One deviation from it can be costly.

-TradeYodha

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Why Rules and Trading Psychology Matter – AUDUSD Example

Why Rules and Trading Psychology Matter – AUDUSD Example

I wanted to post a review of my previous AUDUSD trade but I thought it will be a good post to record my experience on that trade. EURUSD trade last week humbled me and reminded me of my mistakes which I am glad that I did not do in this AUDUSD trade.

I initially planned for this trade as below:

AUDUSD Bat Gartley Patterns for Long Short Forex Trade
AUDUSD Bat Gartley Patterns for Long Short Forex Trade

But it turned out as below:

Why Trading Rules and Trading Psychology Matter - AUDUSD Example
Why Trading Rules and Trading Psychology Matter – AUDUSD Example

Soon after entry, the market started showing bearish signs but my stops were in place with acceptable losses so it was ok. The market then turned in my favor. And then again turned bearish. It was going completely against me.

It was quite a roller coaster in its behaviour. Honestly at several times, thoughts of cutting my losses and getting out of market for a little profits came to me. But then last week’s lessons reminded me to stick to my plan and rules. Once a trade is in, it is in. There is nothing I can do to control the market. I can only work with it. So I stuck to my plan and accepted that it will probably hit my preplanned acceptable stop loss.

I guess for my patience and discipline luck also favored me by few pips. The market came very close to hit my stops but due to spread it did not.

The out come was great. It hit my first target making this overall trade a break even now and is still going strong in my favor.

Trading Psychology is the biggest factor and that is what differentiates Winning Traders from Losing Traders.
-TradeYodha

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EURJPY BAT PATTERN FOREX TRADE IDEA LONG ENTRY

EURJPY BAT PATTERN FOREX TRADE IDEA LONG ENTRY

Snapshot:

EURJPY Bat Pattern Long Forex Trading
EURJPY Bat Pattern Long Forex Trading

Reasons For Trade:

  1. Bat Pattern forming.
  2. Due to sudden drop EUR is reaching oversold area. On H4 it is already oversold but on H1 it is not.
  3. Spikes close to red zone in chart show a Demand area. So price may come back to retest this that is when H1 will be oversold. This can give is a Double Bottom formation.

Stop Placement:

  1. Below point x of bat. Looking left I see another demand area on previous impulse leg. So including that too.

Targets:

  1. First: 38.2 Fibonacci Retracement
  2. Second: 61.8 Fibonacci Retracement

Trade Execution:

  1. At 38.2 close half of the trade and move stops to break even.

Concerns:

Demand are on previous impulse leg is wide and is beyond stop loss limits.

Planned News/Events Expected:

MonOct 26  5:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate

Post Execution Review:

Pending

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Disclaimer: This web site is just my financial trading log and is for educational purposes.
Please do your research, analysis and take your decisions. You must not rely on my actions or analysis.
Please see the Disclaimer page.
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EURJPY Bat Pattern Short Trading

EURJPY Bat Pattern Short Trading

Snapshot:

EURJPY Bat Pattern Short Trading
EURJPY Bat Pattern Short Trading

Reasons For Trade:

  1. Bat Pattern

Stop Placement:

  1. As the 1.618 Fix extension is close to point A, and previous structures are also there we need to have bigger PRZ.

Targets:

  1. Take 1:1 target
  2. Extended target at 38.2 because we have 50sma and 200sma there which may not let us go below 38.2.  See concerns below.

Trade Execution:

  1. Take 1:1 target and  close 50%
  2. Move stop to break even

Concerns:

  1. Price has been consolidating. This may invalidate the pattern as what happened in EURUSD few days ago.
  2. SMAs are just below so possibility of having extended targets is low.

Planned News/Events Expected:

ThuOct 22  7:45am EUR Minimum Bid Rate
8:30am EUR ECB Press Conference
FriOct 23 3:00am EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI
3:30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI

Post Execution Review:

22-Oct-2015: Closed this order. I was waiting for confirmation to take position. Today’s price action has invalids this trade idea. So orders cancelled.

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Disclaimer: This web site is just my financial trading log and is for educational purposes.
Please do your research, analysis and take your decisions. You must not rely on my actions or analysis.
Please see the Disclaimer page.
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EURUSD Bat Pattern and Gartley Pattern Long and Short Trading

EURUSD Bat Pattern and Gartley Pattern Long and Short Trading

Snapshot:

EURUSD Bat Pattern and Gartley Pattern Long and Short Trading
EURUSD Bat Pattern and Gartley Pattern Long and Short Trading

Reasons For Trade:

  1. For long entry we have Gartley pattern completing just above 1.1320
  2. For short entry we have a bat pattern completing around 1.1430 level

Stop Placement:

  1. For long Gartley entry stop needs to be 1 ATR i.e. 13 pips below A.  See concerns below.
  2. For Short Bat Pattern we can have stops just above A around 1.1470

Targets:

  1. First Targets at: 38.2 Fibonacci
  2. Second Targets at : 61.8

Trade Execution:

  1. Take first target and close 60%

Concerns:

  1. 10sma is in the middle of 50sma and 200sma causing market to get stuck at the moment. So if market goes on to complete Bat pattern it will be in uptrend. That means we will have to be careful about our extended targets.
  2. If the market goes to complete gartley pattern we may not be in down trend. We will still be consolidating as long as it respects point A. However we will have 50sma and 200sma above us that means we will again have to be careful with our extended targets.
  3. Also for gartley pattern stop placement is not clear as the next level is below 1.1279 which gives us a huge risk area.

Planned News/Events Expected:

TueOct 20 8:30am USD Building Permits
ThuOct 22  7:45am EUR Minimum Bid Rate 0.05% 0.05%
8:30am EUR ECB Press Conference
USD Unemployment Claims
FriOct 23 3:00am EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI 50.2 50.6
3:30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI

Post Execution Review:

22-Oct-2015: Closed this order. I was waiting for confirmation to take position. Today’s price action has invalids this trade idea. So orders cancelled.

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Leave a comment: I would love to hear your thoughts, suggestions on this topic. Please leave a comment.
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Disclaimer: This web site is just my financial trading log and is for educational purposes.
Please do your research, analysis and take your decisions. You must not rely on my actions or analysis.
Please see the Disclaimer page.
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Today’s Forex Trading Mistakes Journal

20-October-2015: Today has not been a profitable day however it has been productive. I was lost and today’s Forex market humbled me once again and reminded me of few trading mistakes that I made on my way.

For some reason I have been interpreting market signals in contradictory ways. Instead of following rules and patterns I was all over the place. Tried to take 5 positions on NZDJPY, AUDCAD, GBPUSD and AUDUSD. All of them were either cancelled or failed. So a lost a total of 122 pips loss. So approximately a total of 86 pips. This has set back my profit that I made last week by a bit. I am back to 350 pips of profit so far in October so far.

Reviewing today’s actions I found my trading mistakes:

  1. Several of my positions today were based on Advanced Patterns. Every time they were complete and I took a position, they started to go against me. I should have followed the plan and rule to let the market play. But I closed them prematurely only to see that that I was right and pattern did work.
  2. SMAs where all tangled up in few trades. I kept on confusing them with patterns and structures. Instead of following just one thing I tried to mix them.
  3. Did not use RSI as it should be used. Must use them for to read them overbought, oversold and divergences correctly.
  4. Paralysis by analysis created biases. Switched between time frames to justify biases. Must stick to one Trading time frame.
  5. Too much of screen time created emotions causing moving stops. Once trades are in, there should be minimal screen time.

Another day of mistakes and position losses but another day of great learning! Nothing lost only gained!

-TradeYodha

 

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Disclaimer: This web site is just my financial trading log and is for educational purposes.
Please do your research, analysis and take your decisions. You must not rely on my actions or analysis.
Please see the Disclaimer page.
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AUDUSD Bat Pattern & Gartley Pattern for Long & Short #Forex #Trading

AUDUSD Bat Pattern & Gartley Patterns for Long & Short

Snapshot:

AUDUSD Bat Gartley Patterns for Long Short Forex Trade
AUDUSD Bat Gartley Patterns for Long Short Forex Trade

Reasons For Trade:

  1. Bat Pattern for Long Trade entry
  2. Gartley Pattern and Bat Pattern for Short Trade Entries

Stop Placement:

  1. For Long Bat Pattern it has to be below the X point. We see that there is 7200 level too. So stop has to go below that. This increases ours overall risk in trade.
  2. For Gartley Pattern based short entry the stop has to be above X point however we have another structure high just before that. So we will include that too. We use ATR (at the moment it is 13 pips). So stop = high+atr. It is however better to take short entry based on Bat Pattern as it gives us better R/R ratio.

Targets:

  1. For Long Bat Pattern , first target will be at 38.2 retracement and second target will be at 61.8 level.
  2. For Short Gartley Pattern first target is 38.2 retracement and second target can be start of the bat pattern
  3. For Short Bat Pattern , first target will be at 38.2 retracement and second target will be at 61.8 level.

Trade Execution:

  1. For Bat pattern we can be aggressive and front run orders before 0.7220 level.
  2. For Short Gartley Pattern wait for market confirmation using Double Top/Over Bought/Bollinger Bands/2618 type of entry technique.
  3. For Short Bat Pattern  we can be aggressive.

Concerns:

For Gatley pattern there is not much R/R ratio is not good for the first target. As SMAs are just below completion of gartley, price may just come back to retest them and go upwards.

Planned News/Events Expected:

TueOct 20 8:30am USD Building Permits

Post Execution Review:

Pending

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Leave a comment: I would love to hear your thoughts, suggestions on this topic. Please leave a comment.
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Disclaimer: This web site is just my financial trading log and is for educational purposes.
Please do your research, analysis and take your decisions. You must not rely on my actions or analysis.
Please see the Disclaimer page.
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AUDCAD SHORT & LONG IDEA (BAT PATTERN, 50SMA) #FOREX

AUDCAD SHORT & LONG IDEA (BAT PATTERN, 50SMA) 

AUDUSD Short Long BAT Pattern Trade
AUDUSD Short Long BAT Pattern Trade

View It On TradingView

Reasons For Trade:

1. Price may try to retest 50sma/200sma cross over to give us a short opportunity.
2. Target will be to complete advanced pattern where we will have another opportunity to go long. Wait for confirmation there.

Stop Placement:

  1. Above 50 sma at least and previous high

Targets:

  1. First short target at the completion of Bat Pattern.
  2. Long Position will have 2 targets: First at 38.2 Fib retracement where stops will come to break even after closing 50% of position. Second target will be 61.8 Fib retracement which is close to retest of B point of Bat Pattern

Trade Execution:

  1. See above

Concerns:

  1. None

Planned News Expected: (UK Time)

TueOct 20  1:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
WedOct 21 3:00pm CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report
CAD BOC Rate Statement
CAD Overnight Rate 0.50% 0.50%
4:15pm CAD BOC Press Conference

Post Execution Review:

Pending

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Leave a comment: I would love to hear your thoughts, suggestions on this topic. Please leave a comment.
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Disclaimer: This web site is just my financial trading log and is for educational purposes.
Please do your research, analysis and take your decisions. You must not rely on my actions or analysis.
Please see the Disclaimer page.
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EURUSD SHORT #TRADE SMA RETEST FIBONACCI STRUCTURE #FOREX

EURUSD SHORT #TRADE SMA RETEST FIBONACCI STRUCTURE 

EURUSD SMA Short Trade
EURUSD SMA Short Trade

View It On TradingView

Reasons For Trade:

1. 10sma is lagging behind and EURUSD price has tested 200sma 2 times already. If the prices come back up to touch 10sma, we will have an opportunity to go short.
2. Price is currently in down trend and is not oversold yet.

Stop Placement:

  1. Above 50 sma at least and previous high

Targets:

  1. First Target at: 1:1 R/R i.e. 127.2 Fib extension. That is where 61.8 Fib retracement of impulse leg has confleunce.
  2. Second Target at 161.8 Fib extension. That is where 78.6 Fib retracement of impulse leg has confleunce.

Trade Execution:

  1. Wait for a confirmation inside the zone to take an entry as this is a wide zone.
  2. As soon as the target 1 hit, close 50% of positon, move stops 50% down as price may come back up to retest and fall down again.

Concerns:

  1. The price may try going over 50sma to touch a zone around 1.1442 area of EURUSD

Planned News Expected: (UK Time)

TueOct 20  1:30pm USD Building Permits

Post Execution Review:

Pending

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Leave a comment: I would love to hear your thoughts, suggestions on this topic. Please leave a comment.
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Disclaimer: This web site is just my financial trading log and is for educational purposes.
Please do your research, analysis and take your decisions. You must not rely on my actions or analysis.
Please see the Disclaimer page.
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October 2015 Trading Review So Far

October 2015 has been very profitable so far. Here is trading review.

#USDJPY, #GBPJPY, #GBPAUD, #AUDUSD, #EURUSD, #EURCAD have been best profitable trades in October so far in forex trading. Below is the distribution of my trades.

October 2015 Forex Distribution

Average holding time has also decreased. Lesser time you spend in market to get the profits better it is to reduce your exposure at a point in time. Think of news events and Black Swan events such as recent EURCHF floor removal event.

October Average Forex Trade Holding Times

I will post full October review later that end of the month.

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Leave a comment: I would love to hear your thoughts, suggestions on this topic. Please leave a comment.
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Disclaimer: This web site is just my financial trading log and is for educational purposes.
Please do your research, analysis and take your decisions. You must not rely on my actions or analysis.
Please see the Disclaimer page.
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