AUDUSD Bigger Bull Idea (50/200 SMA, Structure)

AUDUSD Bigger Bull Idea (50/200 SMA, Structure)

2015-10-13_AUDUSD Long Term
2015-10-13_AUDUSD Long Term

Better place for Long entry is at 1H chart:

2015-10-13_audusd better long trade entry zone
2015-10-13_audusd better long trade entry zone

Reasons For Trade:

1. 10sma is crossing 50sma in the yellow region. The price might test this zone to give us a bullish entry.
2. 200 sma is far up above. Once the price crosses the latest structure high at 0.7378, the next target will be retest of 127.2 fib level/200sma.
2. Daily and weekly chart are not showing any signs of oversold or overbought.

Stop Placement:

  1. Below 10sma-50sma crossover

Targets:

  1. First Target at: 1:1 R/R
  2. Second Target at 127.2 Fib extension of most recent high
  3. Third Target around 200sma

Trade Execution:

  1. Wait for a confirmation inside the zone to take an entry as this is a wide zone.
  2. As soon as target 1 is hit, close 50% of the position and move the stops to break even i.e. 0.7238
  3. Ride to second target and close 50% of the remaining position and move stops to 0.7330
  4. Re analyse the market to see if more profit can be made with 200sma as target and stops at 0.7428

Concerns:

  1. The price may never come to our zone to give us an entry.
  2. Trade Management will be complicated

Planned News Expected: (UK Time)

TueOct 13  1:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence
WedOct 14 1:30pm USD Core Retail Sales m/m
USD PPI m/m
USD Retail Sales m/m

Post Execution Review:

Pending

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Leave a comment: I would love to hear your thoughts, suggestions on this topic. Please leave a comment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: This web site is just my financial trading log and is for educational purposes.
Please do your research, analysis and take your decisions. You must not rely on my actions or analysis.
Please see the Disclaimer page.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

#GBPJPY 2618 TRADE SHORT AND LONG IDEAS (BAT PATTERN FORMATION)

#GBPJPY 2618 TRADE SHORT AND LONG IDEAS (BAT PATTERN FORMATION)

#GBPJPY 2618 TRADE SHORT AND LONG IDEAS (BAT PATTERN FORMATION)
#GBPJPY 2618 TRADE SHORT AND LONG IDEAS (BAT PATTERN FORMATION)

A. Reasons For Short Trade:

1. Double top formed with bearish divergence
2. Price may go upto retest 61.8 retracement and 200sma to give short opportunity

Stop Placement:

  1. Area above the previous High

Targets:

  1. Target will be at completion of bat pattern where 200sma is located

Trade Execution :

  1. Only one position for short

Concerns:

  1. None

B. Reasons For Long Trade:

1. Bat pattern completion
2. 200sma close to the zone

Stop Placement:

  1. Below the immediate support there is another support area. So we will have to include that too.

Targets:

  1. First target will be 38.2% retracement of AD leg
  2. Second target will be at 61.8 retracement of AD leg

Trade Execution :

  1. Aggressive entries to be taken

Concerns:

  1. None

Planned News Expected: (UK Time)

TueOct 13  9:30am GBP CPI y/y
WedOct 14 9:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y
GBP Claimant Count Change

 

Post Execution Review:

Pending

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Leave a comment: I would love to hear your thoughts, suggestions on this topic. Please leave a comment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: This web site is just my financial trading log and is for educational purposes.
Please do your research, analysis and take your decisions. You must not rely on my actions or analysis.
Please see the Disclaimer page.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

USDJPY Sma, Structure & Fibonacci Idea

USDJPY Sma, Structure &Fibonacci Idea

USDJPY Sma, Structure & Fibonacci Idea
USDJPY Sma, Structure & Fibonacci Idea

A. Reasons For Long Trade:

1. Price has gone oversold and is showing bullish divergence on RSI
2.  It may try to retest the point where 50sma crossed 200sma.

Stop Placement:

  1. Area below the immediate low

Targets:

  1. region between 200sma and 50sma on 1H chart. Just below the opening of the candle.

Trade Execution :

  1. Only one position for long

Concerns:

  1. None

B. Reasons For Short Trade:

1. Once the price has tested sma crossover, it may start falling down to retest lower levels. Price has  moved below sma indicating bearish flow.

Stop Placement:

  1. Area above the major structure high

Targets:

  1. First target will be 50% retracement of previous upwards impulse leg. There is a huge spike there at 119.630
  2. Second target will be at Fibonacci confluence of 1.618 extension and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement. This is because once target 1 is met and price keeps on moving downwards, there is not much structure on the way downwards.

Trade Execution :

  1. Wait for short signal in the zone above 120.078

Concerns:

  1. None

Planned News Expected: (UK Time)

WedOct 14
1:30pm
USD
Core Retail Sales m/m

USD
PPI m/m

USD
Retail Sales m/m

Post Execution Review:

Pending

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Leave a comment: I would love to hear your thoughts, suggestions on this topic. Please leave a comment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: This web site is just my financial trading log and is for educational purposes.
Please do your research, analysis and take your decisions. You must not rely on my actions or analysis.
Please see the Disclaimer page.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

#AUDUSD 4H Fibonacci Trade

AUDUSD 4H Fibonacci Trade
AUDUSD 4H Fibonacci Trade

Reasons For Trade:

1. Close Fibonacci Confluence of 0.886XA leg with 1.272 AB leg
2.  RSI has been overbought i.e. above 80

Stop Placement:

  1. Above the are of resistance

Targets:

  1. 23.6 Fib Retracement of AD Leg will be the first target as this is currently respecting 23.6 instead of 38.2
  2. 50.0 Fib Retracement of AD Leg will be the second target as this is currently respecting 23.6 instead of 38.2

Trade Execution:

  1. Let the price reach the PRZ and look for Double Top or Bearish Divergence or an Advanced Harmonic Pattern completion in the zone on a lower time frame i..e. 1H or 15M chart.
  2. As soon as Target 1 is hit, move the stop to break even and close half of the position.

Concerns:

  1. Stop Placement. The Supply/Demand theory suggests stops where they are. However advanced harmonics dictates stops to go above previous structure.

Planned News Expected: (UK Time)

TueOct 13  1:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence
WedOct 14 1:30pm USD Core Retail Sales m/m
USD PPI m/m
USD Retail Sales m/m

Post Execution Review:

Pending

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Leave a comment: I would love to hear your thoughts, suggestions on this topic. Please leave a comment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: This web site is just my financial trading log and is for educational purposes.
Please do your research, analysis and take your decisions. You must not rely on my actions or analysis.
Please see the Disclaimer page.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

#AUDCAD 4H Fibonacci, Gartley Short Idea

#AUDCAD 4H Fibonacci, Gartley Pattern Short Idea

AUDCAD 4H Fibonacci Short Idea
AUDCAD 4H Fibonacci Short Idea

Reasons For Trade:

1. Close Fibonacci Confluence of 0.786XA leg with 1.272 AB leg
2. Gartley Pattern
3.  RSI has been overbought i.e. above 80

Stop Placement:

  1. Above the are of resistance

Targets:

  1. 23.6 Fib Retracement of AD Leg will be the first target as this is currently respecting 23.6 instead of 38.2
  2. 50.0 Fib Retracement of AD Leg will be the second target as this is currently respecting 23.6 instead of 38.2

Trade Execution:

  1. Let the price reach the PRZ and look for Double Top or Bearish Divergence or an Advanced Harmonic Pattern completion in the zone on a lower time frame i..e. 1H or 15M chart.
  2. As soon as Target 1 is hit, move the stop to break even and close half of the position.

Concerns:

  1. Stop Placement. The Supply/Demand theory suggests stops where they are. However advanced harmonics dictates stops to go above previous structure.

Planned News Expected: (UK Time)

MonOct 12  6:20pm CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
TueOct 13 1:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence

Post Execution Review:

Pending

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Leave a comment: I would love to hear your thoughts, suggestions on this topic. Please leave a comment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: This web site is just my financial trading log and is for educational purposes.
Please do your research, analysis and take your decisions. You must not rely on my actions or analysis.
Please see the Disclaimer page.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EURUSD 4H Bat Pattern Trade

EURUSD SHORT IDEA (BAT PATTERN) – 12-Oct-2015

EURUSD 4H Bat Pattern Trade

Reasons For Trade:

1. Bat Pattern
2. Close Fibonacci Confluence of 0.886XA leg with 1.618 AB leg
3.  RSI has been overbought i.e. above 80

Stop Placement:

  1. 1.113 or 1 ATR (37 Pips) above Structure High i.e. Point X of Bat Pattern

Targets:

  1. 38.2 Fib Retracement of AD Leg will be the first target
  2. 61.8 Fib Retracement of AD Leg will be the second target

Trade Execution:

  1. Let the price reach the PRZ and look for Double Top or Bearish Divergence or an Advanced Harmonic Pattern completion in the zone on a lower time frame i..e. 1H or 15M chart.
  2. As soon as Target 1 is hit, move the stop to break even and close half of the position.

Concerns:

  1. Overall trend seems to be bullish at the moment. So this will be a counter trend trade. Second Target may not be achieved.

Planned News Expected: (UK Time)

None

Post Execution Review:

Pending

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Leave a comment: I would love to hear your thoughts, suggestions on this topic. Please leave a comment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: This web site is just my financial trading log and is for educational purposes.
Please do your research, analysis and take your decisions. You must not rely on my actions or analysis.
Please see the Disclaimer page.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

How To Read Market Structures, Trends and Their Reversals – Example EURUSD

It is astonishing fact that most of us still get confused when it comes to reading a market. This is the biggest killer in Technical Analysis and differentiating factor between Wining and Losing trades. No matter what trading strategy traders use, they must always be able to read the chart with naked eyes without any indicators. Below is an example where I have tried to explain it a bit in steps. Lets walk this through together.

Reading A Market Trend:

    1. On a chart we always start with a Swing High or Swing Low. In this example we have a Swing High. We call that Initial Structure High (ISH). In case of bull market we will call that as Initial Structure Low. We see that the market has been in heavy bearish action in Step 1. it creates a New Structure Low (NSL) i.e. Swing Low.reading market trend structrure reversal(Click on image to open bigger version)

 

  1. Then in in Step 2 it reverses from NSL and tries to retest upwards and gets rejected. However it comes back down to NSL and does not violate it. This is the first major sign of trend reversal as no new Lows are being made. Remember, for a market to stay in bearish trend it has to create new lows.
  2. Market then rallies to create a NSH which violates the previous high (Marked In Yellow). This satisfies the second condition for an Up Trend. Remember for an Up Trend we need two conditions i.e. Higher Lows and Higher Highs. This confirms that market trend has shifted.
  3. In 4th step we enter a consolidation phase where price moves in a range. In consolidation phase the price does not violate Highs and Lows. It stays in a range.
  4. In 5th step, we see that market breaks out of the range upwards creating further new highs. Now for it to stay in up trend it must respect previous low. It is common for the price to come back to retest those lows but it must not violate previous lows.

How To Take Trading Opportunity (S.E.T.):

  1. Stop Placement: If we were to take a trade at the market we must have our stops below previous major lows.
  2. Entry and Targets: For targets always look at the previous highs. The new previous high from here is the Initial Structure High. So a retest of that High will be our target. But if we are conservative in trading your first target must always be 127.2 Fibonacci Extension of last high. However, this in this chart gives a little less than 1:1 Risk/Reward ratio. If that does not work for us we can either wait for the market to go down a bit and take the entry at market to give us better R/R ratio.

Good Trading
@TradeYodha

 

 

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Leave a comment: I would love to hear your thoughts, suggestions on this topic. Please leave a comment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: This web site is just my financial trading log and is for educational purposes.
Please do your research, analysis and take your decisions. You must not rely on my actions or analysis.
Please see the Disclaimer page.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------